The Amazon rainforest could be gone within a lifetime
Large ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest, will collapse and disappear alarmingly quickly, once a crucial tipping point is reached, according to calculations based on real-world data.
Writing in Nature Comms (), researchers from 麻豆传媒高清版, Southampton University and The School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London, reveal the speed at which ecosystems of different sizes will disappear, once they have reached a point beyond which they collapse 鈥� transforming into an alternative ecosystem.
For example, once the 鈥榩oint of no return鈥� is reached, the iconic Amazon rainforest could shift to a savannah-type ecosystem with a mix of trees and grass within 50 years, according to the work.
, with the fires and destruction both in the Amazon and in Australia.
鈥淯nfortunately, what our paper reveals is that humanity needs to prepare for changes far sooner than expected,鈥� says joint lead author Dr Simon Willcock of 麻豆传媒高清版鈥檚 School of Natural Sciences.
鈥淭hese rapid changes to the world鈥檚 largest and most iconic ecosystems would impact the benefits which they provide us with, including everything from food and materials, to the oxygen and water we need for life.鈥�
What can be done to slow these collapses?
Ecosystems made up of a number of interacting species, rather than those dominated by one single species, may be more stable and take longer to shift to alternative ecosystem states. These provide opportunities to mitigate or manage the worst effects, say the authors. For example, elephants are a termed a 鈥榢ey stone鈥� species as they have a disproportionately large impact on the landscape 鈥� pushing over trees, but also dispersing seeds over large distances. The authors state that the loss of key stone species, such as this, would lead to a rapid and dramatic change in the landscape within our lifetime.
鈥淭his is yet another strong argument to avoid degrading our planet鈥檚 ecosystems; we need to do more to conserve biodiversity,鈥� says Dr Gregory Cooper, School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London.
Prof John Dearing from Geography and Environment at Southampton University says:
鈥淲e intuitively knew that big systems would collapse more slowly than small ones 鈥� due to the time it takes for impacts to diffuse across large distances. But what was unexpected was the finding that big systems collapse much faster than you might expect 鈥� even the largest on Earth only taking possibly a few decades.鈥�
Publication date: 10 March 2020